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Evaluation, characterization, and communication of uncertainty by the intergovernmental panel on climate change- an introductory essay

TitleEvaluation, characterization, and communication of uncertainty by the intergovernmental panel on climate change- an introductory essay
Publication TypeManual Entry
Year of Publication2011
AuthorsYohe, Gary, and Michael Oppenheimer
Climatic Change
Volume108
Citation Key155
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Community Notes

This article is in response to issues surrounding the IPCC’s treatment of uncertainty in climate projections.  They admit that the IPCC has struggled to describe uncertainties and assign confidence to them.  Part of the issue with presenting uncertainty is an unclear definition of who the audience of their reports is.  Their current communication has been written in the Summary for Policymakers.  It is recognized that scientists are not communication experts and their messages are easily misinterpreted or misunderstood.  If the IPCC plans to communicate to the general public about their findings, communication experts will have to be included in the process in order to develop useful messages.  This emphasizes the issue of how separate the evaluation of uncertainty and the communication of uncertainty really are.  Aside from better defining audiences, the IPCC aims to improve information related to risk management.  The assessments will better capture the full range of ptential risk for decion-makers, not just the risks that pose the greatest perceived threat.  This article is useful to describe the IPCC perspective on uncertainty and how they might change their communication of uncertainty in future assessment reports.