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Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions

TitleConfidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions
Publication TypeManual Entry
Year of Publication2007
AuthorsStainforth, D. A., M. R. Allen, E. R. Tredger, and L. A. Smith
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences
Volume365
Pagination2145-2161
Citation Key122
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Community Notes

Taken from Chapter 6, "Confidence in model-based climate predictions"

"the possible impact of missing processes can be qualitatively discussed, at least in
terms of their probable impact in the current climate. Confidence may also come
from physical understanding of the processes involved. We have no hope of
confirming the reliability of a predicting system, so confident statements about
future climate will be more qualitative than one might wish and conditional on a
number of significant assumptions. They may nevertheless by extremely valuable
in guiding societal response to the climate change problem."

"Most organizations are very familiar with
uncertainty of many different kinds and even qualitative guidance can have
substantial value in the design of robust adaptation strategies which minimize
vulnerability to both climate variability and change." (p. 2159)